How geopolitical risk turned into a systemic stress test
Conflict over resources is reshaping markets in a way that goes beyond occasional risk premia
For decades, global markets treated geopolitical risk as a transitory disturbance – a headline-driven premium that flared briefly before fading back into the noise of macro fundamentals. War scares, sanctions, territorial disputes and regime crises were modelled as temporary volatility spikes, rarely altering long-term asset allocation or risk frameworks.
Traditional risk models treat geopolitical events as low-probability, high-impact tail risks. Scenario libraries include war, embargoes and
More on Risk management
How AI agents can join the dots for risk managers
Citi risk expert outlines agentic AI tool that would pull together structured and unstructured data on trading and lending approvals to create single, unified view of risk
In Iran war, VAR models ease cliff effect on Ice and CME margins
At 105%, EEX – using Span model – saw largest single-day jump compared with those CCPs
Newcomer of the year: Abaxx Exchange
Energy Risk Awards 2026: New exchange sets out to modernise commodity derivatives by aligning them to physical markets
AI project of the year: SOCAR Türkiye
Energy Risk Awards 2026: Risk team harnesses AI to transform RCSA into a scalable, sustainable and internally owned capability
Data, cyber and model risk top IT concerns for risk managers: survey
Energy Risk software survey reveals risk managers’ tech pain points and plans
Energy Risk Debates: the Iran conflict and the widening mandate of the risk manager
Panellists discuss the impact of the Middle East crisis so far on risk teams and the drive towards enterprise risk management
Abaxx: meeting the need for new commodity derivatives
Abaxx revamps commodity hedging with a suite of modern contracts
Tokenised commodities could help oil the machine
Shifting physical assets onto the blockchain eases collateral frictions, argues crypto expert
