Energy Risk reaction: Venezuela and oil sanctions

The geopolitical uncertainty that characterised 2025 has continued apace at the start of 2026 with the US’s ousting of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and increasing vigour to halt the trade of sanctioned Venezuelan crude.

While Venezuela is estimated to have the world’s largest oil reserves, its current production of only around one million barrels a day, or 1% of global oil output, has limited any global oil price reaction. However, ripples are being felt in certain areas of the market and there is a lot for energy risk managers to consider in terms of their supply chains, freight rates and any exposures they may have to heavy, sour crude.  

Energy Risk spoke with Rob McLeod, partner and head of global risk solutions at commodity trading firm Hartree Partners, about the implications of these events for risk managers in the energy space.

Time stamps

00:00  What are the immediate implications for energy risk managers of the US taking control of Venezuelan oil?

02:12 Given that Venezuelan crude comprises only 1% of global output, how big an impact are recent events likely to have, and which firms are being affected currently?

04:30 How much extra crude is likely to start flowing now as a result of US activity?

05:46 Are you seeing the situation being priced into long-term oil prices yet?

06:43 Who will be the winners and losers of the immediate change in Venezuelan oil flows? 

08:40 What’s the impact of these events on refined products?

10:11 Are you seeing firms revisiting their supply chains, looking at their exposures and carrying out short-term trading in reaction to the situation?