“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” wrote Spanish-born US philosopher George Santayana in 1905. Since then, his aphorism has often been quoted by essayists and newspaper columnists seeking to remind political leaders about the lessons of history.

But Santayana’s words are also useful advice for energy risk managers. For the history of energy risk management is full of episodes in which a promising strategy went terribly wrong, embarrassing the companies involved and