Bayesian probabilities have been put to use in a diverse range of applications. Traders have used them to attempt to predict the rise and fall of the stock market; California-based internet giant Google uses them to predict which links website visitors will click on; and New York-based journalist and statistician Nate Silver used them to successfully predict the outcome of the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections.

One area where they are not usually used is to forecast the weather. Instead