Stability ahead? Oil prices to tighten as expectations wane
Forecast suggests drop in crude volatility in months ahead

Andreas Economou is a research fellow at OIES.
The renewed oil price plunge – Brent spots fell by 9.2% between March 1–10 – has reopened the debate on the factors that could dictate a sustained oil price recovery following the 2014–16 oil price slump. While the Organisation for the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (Opec) decision to extend cuts beyond June will be crucial, primary market factors point to tightened prices.
Brent fell close to $50 per barrel (/bbl) in mid-March – its lowest level
More on Oil & refined products
Energy Risk at 30: Learning from the past
Energy Risk looks back at the seminal events and developments that have shaped today’s energy markets
Why Iran tensions failed to rattle markets
Despite initial fears, traders say risks were signposted and investors had deleveraged after April
Oil and products house of the year: Macquarie Group
Energy Risk Awards: Bank pioneers innovative deals in illiquid markets, taking on esoteric risk
Podcast: should negative oil prices be allowed?
Did negative oil prices signify the market was operating effectively, or that something was wrong?
Podcast: the future of retail investment in oil
Will negative prices and big losses curb retail investors’ appetite for oil futures over the longer term?
Podcast: Kaminski and Ronn on negative oil and options pricing
The market is gravitating to the Bachelier model as an alternative to Black 76
Negative oil prices put spotlight on investors
What part did Bank of China and other investors play in last month’s oil rout, asks derivatives veteran
How Onyx came from nowhere to conquer oil swaps
In just four years, market-maker has become the largest provider of liquidity in energy derivatives