In December 2007, IDEAcarbon forecasted the shortfalls in EUAs would be 206 million tonnes per year of CO2 equivalent. The recession has reduced this estimate to 115 million tonnes per year from 2008-2012.

The forecast suggests that EU industrial output will grow at 1% in 2008, and shrink by 0.7% in 2009. “This will reduce the level of emissions from industry across Europe, and therefore cause a drop in the shortfall of credits available,” says Alessandro Vitelli, director of strategy and