Modelling
Quant energy models need greater emphasis on fundamentals
Boom in shale oil and gas extraction, and growth in renewables underline importance of reflecting fundamental factors in quant models, argue experts
Resist the rise of the risk management machines
Overreliance on modern risk management systems, and metrics such as value-at-risk, can blind firms to tectonic structural market shifts. To help alleviate this problem, the use of human judgement and intervention is required, argues Vincent Kaminski
Is risk modelling keeping up with the energy market?
Lean times in energy and commodity derivatives trading have caused a cutback in the amount of time and resources spent on energy risk modelling – a worrying trend that could leave firms unprepared for future market challenges, argue some experts. Mark…
Applied risk management series: modelling spreads in energy markets
The modelling of energy spreads, surprisingly, is one of the most overlooked areas in energy finance. Carlos Blanco, Michael Pierce and José Ramón Aragonés explore the most widely used one-factor and two-factor spread models for derivatives valuation and…
Analysing common processes used to model energy prices
Choosing the appropriate process for modelling energy prices is essential for best calculating value, risk and hedging metrics for energy derivatives and assets. In this first article of a six-part series, Carlos Blanco and Michael Pierce discuss some…
Cutting edge technical: Carbon derivatives pricing
In carbon dioxide equilibrium models, permit prices are positive and bounded by the penalty level. To obtain closed-form solutions to the pricing of carbon dioxide derivatives, Daniel Bloch models the permit price as a function of a positive unbounded…
Q&A: Blue Star Energy Solutions’ John Wengler on risk
BlueStar Energy Solutions’ chief risk officer, John Wengler, speaks to Pauline McCallion about managing energy risk in the US power markets
Q&A: Endesa’s Jaime Roman on mergers
Jaime Roman, head of risk management at Spanish utility Endesa, talks to Katie Holliday about the attitudes to risk management in Europe from the perspective of a major European utility operating in the growing Iberian markets
Q&A: Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings’s Akihiro Kawabe on transparency
Risk management in Asia is arguably more difficult to estimate as each country has very different regulatory requirements and political risk. Lianna Brinded speaks to Akihiro Kawabe, executive officer and general manager of the corporate risk management…
Risk managers debate at Energy Risk USA conference
Energy risk managers from across North America convened at Energy Risk’s annual US conference in May to discuss the many challenges currently facing the sector, including derivatives regulation and carbon market growth, as Pauline McCallion reports
Exclusive Kaminski Video: energy risk management challenges
The energy markets still face an unprecedented level of regulatory risk over the next year, as impending changes to the US financial system loom, while at the same time, BP’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill has presented major operational risk factors for the…
Energy market correlations: have they changed permanently?
Have traditional energy market correlations changed permanently as a result of the credit bubble bursting and how will this impact trends in price forecasting and modelling? Pauline McCallion reports
Cutting Edge: Pure jump models for energy prices
Université de Lausanne’s Roberto Marfè investigates pure jump processes as modelling blocks for the distributions of energy returns under the pricing measure. An easy-to-implement option-implied approach is outlined, which circumvents most of the…
Spring loading
Abstract: In May’s Expert Series, LesClewlow and Chris Strickland discussedthe use of Monte Carlo simulation in energy risk management and introduced aseries of models that they argued were suitable for the simulation of energy-and weather-dependent…
Models of good behaviour
The development of new models that describe the real dynamics of energy prices have to take into account the behavioural aspects of market players. The problem is how to quantify these aspects. Maria Kielmas reports
Asian basket spreads and other exotic averaging options
Giuseppe Castellacci and Michael Siclari of OpenLink introduce a class of exotic options that simultaneously generalises both Asian and basket options. They develop approximate analytic models for real-time pricing of complex instruments that average…
A decision model for selling park and loan services
The park and loan model is useful for gas storages and pipelines. The concept can be applied to many ‘when to sell’-type decisions. Here, Huagang ‘Hugh’ Li considers selling park and loan services as a financial and statistical decision on revenue and…